ABSTRACT: We investigated the ecological importance of Pacific herring Clupea pallasii spawning
activity to wintering waterbird numbers in Tomales Bay, California, USA. Time-series analyses
were used to assess the potential dependence of future waterbird abundances on current
changes in herring spawning biomass, independent of underlying trends or other dynamics in
waterbird numbers or herring activity. Forecasts of winter waterbird abundance were significantly
improved by considering the lagged effects of changes in herring spawning biomass.
Kelly, J. P., C. A. Rothenbach, and W. W. Weathers. 2018. Echoes of numerical dependence: responses of wintering waterbirds to Pacific herring spawns. Marine Ecology Progress Series, 597:243-257. doi: 10.3354/meps12594